tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6764887698191008891.post8265410307709771564..comments2023-06-26T11:28:06.765-04:00Comments on Fluster Cucked: 45,000 New Lawyers every year and the Rate of Attorney OverproductionFrank the Underemployed Professionalhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00461791753886733576noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6764887698191008891.post-4308741405879508512013-02-16T06:39:23.491-05:002013-02-16T06:39:23.491-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Attorney Jobs CAhttp://www.bcgsearch.com/legalmarketsinfo.php?id=2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6764887698191008891.post-1572941126389193092011-03-11T08:02:54.885-05:002011-03-11T08:02:54.885-05:00I disagree with the argument that the point falls ...I disagree with the argument that the point falls apart if you don't base the tenure on 40 years.<br /><br />Change 40 to only 30 years on the job and just assume EVERYONE will retire 10 years early and you still have twice as many lawyers as needed.<br /><br />i.g. 30 divided by 14.43 = 2.07 new JDs for every lawyer job available which is 107% more than needed. <br /><br />We still have about 1 extra lawyer for EVERY job available.<br /><br />Even more interesting is I think as incarceration costs exceed what the nation can afford more lax drug laws will go into effect over the next couple of years and less of a "need" for lawyers will become evident.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6764887698191008891.post-80993899292180643852010-10-08T02:27:37.620-04:002010-10-08T02:27:37.620-04:00You're not being rude. Questioning my assumpt...You're not being rude. Questioning my assumption is legitimate and it's an issue worthy of debate. In my posts I have pointed out that I am making that assumption and that it is an assumption.<br /><br />I think that the 40 year assumption is reasonable since the majority of law students enter law school immediately after finishing their undergraduate degrees, in which case they would graduate at age 24 or 25. Age 65 seems like a good age at which to assume retirement since that's when full Social Security benefits kick in.<br /><br />Certainly, many successful lawyers will retire before age 65 and many will continue to practice past age 65. Many more will have compelling financial reasons for continuing to practice. Many of the JDs who were unable to find work in the legal profession might also need to work past age 65.<br /><br />Most of what I have been reading in the newspapers or hearing on the radio or elsewhere suggests that, if anything, people are retiring at later ages today.<br /><br />I can't say for certain how many years your average JD will remain in the workforce, but 40 years seems like a pretty reasonable assumption and it's a nice, round number. The actual average may be more or less than 40 years, but it's probably not too far off the mark.<br /><br />This discussion raises an interesting question. Given that law student loan and undergraduate loan debt have increased significantly over time, will this increased indebtedness result in JDs delaying retirement longer than they otherwise would? If the employment situation for lawyers and JDs who work as non-lawyers has worsened and/or worsens over time, will it result in JDs postponing (or wanting to postpone) retirement?Frank the Underemployed Professionalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00461791753886733576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6764887698191008891.post-6320204223773806942010-09-16T00:19:33.543-04:002010-09-16T00:19:33.543-04:00Not to be rude, but I went around repeating the ge...Not to be rude, but I went around repeating the general point based on Jr. Deputy Accountant's blog, and see now that your whole point falls apart without the assumption of a 40-year tenure.<br /><br />That assumption is meaningless. Lawyers don't work that long on average; nor do they typically "want" to, as you keep saying. So, it takes more JDs to fill the pipe.<br /><br />This whole analysis falls somewhere between misleading and meaningless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com